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Chhattisgarh post-poll survey: BJP to win 45-55 seats, Congress 32-40

By Hemant Verma On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 , , , 0 comments


The Raman Singh-led BJP administration is expected to retain Chhattisgarh in the 2013 Assembly elections. This victory will mean a third straight term for the BJP.
A CNN-IBN, The Week and CSDS post-poll survey projects 45-55 seats for the ruling BJP in the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly as predicted by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Prof Rajeeva Karandikar using the data from the survey. The main opposition party, the Congress, is projected to win 32-40 seats, while others are expected to bag 1-7 seats.
In the 2008 Assembly elections the BJP won 50 seats, Congress got 38 and BSP managed to bag two.
These projections are on the back of the vote shares predicted by the survey, which give 42 per cent of the votes to the BJP and 38 per cent to the Congress.
The difference of 4 percentage points is, thus, expected to translate into a victory for the BJP, which will mean a major setback to the Congress's hopes of ousting the incumbent.
The Congress can only take solace from the fact that it appears to have made some gains between October and the elections. In the pre-poll survey held in October, the Congress was expected to get just 32 per cent of the votes, which has now climbed to 38 per cent.
The ruling BJP was expected to get 46 per cent votes, which has gone down to 42 per cent in the post-poll survey, making it a closer contest in most parts of the state.
How has Chhattisgarh voted:
Chhattisgarh went to polls on November 11 and 19 in two phases.
In North Chhattisgarh with 34 seats, the contest was a close fight between the Congress and the BJP. In Central part of the state, BJP was generally ahead and it was close in urban areas of the region.
In the Maoist infested and tribal dominated South Chhattisgarh with 13 seats, there was a close fight between the Congress and the BJP. The smaller parties also did well here.
The BJP had an overall lead in rural areas and it was a close fight in urban areas. It shows the Congress' inability to regain the lost ground in its once very strong base in rural areas of the state.
The post-poll survey was also conducted in two phases between November 13 to 19 and November 20-26. A total of 25 assembly constituencies, 97 polling stations and 1629 voters were surveyed by the team.
Interestingly, one third of the voters said that they made up their mind who to vote for either on a day before voting or on the day of voting. But 48 per cent voters have replied that they made up their mind before the start of the campaign.
Surprisingly, among the 21 per cent of the voters who said that they made their choice on the day of voting, many seem to have voted for the Congress. It narrowed the gap between the Congress and the BJP.
The pro-incumbency, which is stronger than 2008, seems to have helped Raman Singh to retain power. This time the pro-incumbency percentage has gone up to 55 per cent from 51 per cent in 2008.
Even satisfaction level among the people has gone up to 81 per cent from 72 per cent in 2008. While 82 per cent voters have replied that they are happy with Raman Singh's performance as the Chief Minister, it was 75 per cent in 2008.
The Congress is ahead among the tribals, but it has lost the massive advantage in had over the BJP among them.
The majority of the first time voters (18-22 years) preferred the Congress over the BJP. But the BJP has maintained its lead in all other age groups.










CHHATTISGARH POST-POLL SURVEY 2013
 
KEY FINDINGS
Table 1: Estimated Votes for Assembly 2013: BJP likely to emerge ahead of INC once again
Party
2008
(Actual)
Pre Poll Survey
2013 (Estimate)
 Post Poll Survey
 2013 (Estimate)
Estimated Change
since 2008
INC
38.6
32
38
-1
BJP
40.3
46
42
+2
BSP
6.1
6
5
-1
Ind + Others
15.0
16
15
0
Note: All figures are in percent
Question asked in the post poll survey: Whom did you vote for (in the assembly election)? I am giving you this slip which has names and election symbols of all the candidates that you saw on the voting machine. On this slip please put a mark in front of the same symbol against which you pressed the button.
Table 2a: One third of the Chhattisgarh voters said they made up their mind who to vote for either on the eve of voting or on the day of voting

Decided who to vote for…

On the day of voting
21
A day or two before voting
11
During the campaign
13
Before the start of the campaign
48
Can’t say
7
Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size is 1526. Weighted data.
Question asked: (If voted) When did you finally make up your mind about who to vote for?

Table 2b: Among the 21 percent who said they finally made their choice on the day of voting, many seem to have voted for the INC

Vote preference of those
who decided who to vote for..
Voted
for INC
Voted
for BJP
On the day of voting
43
34
A day or two before voting
33
49
During the campaign
31
34
Before the start of the campaign
38
47
Can’t say
42
40
Note: All figures are in percent. Weighted data.
Questions asked: Whom did you vote for (in the assembly election)? (If voted) When did you finally make up your mind about who to vote for?

Table 3: Main reasons given by BJP and INC voters for voting for the party
Main reasons given by BJP and INC voters
for voting for party/candidate (answers to an open ended question)
BJP
voters
INC
voters
I generally like the party/it has good leaders/it has a good programme
24
22
I am satisfied with the BJP govt./CM
15
1
I like the candidate fielded by the party/accessible candidate
8
6
I am dissatisfied with the BJP govt./CM
1
5
My family members are traditional
supporters of the party
5
11
Party is capable of controlling corruption
1
2
Party is capable of controlling price rise
3
4
Caste considerations in favour of party/candidate
1
2
I like Ajit Jogi
0
2
Note: All figures are in percent; the rest gave various other reasons or could not answer the question; Sample size for BJP voters in this question is 611; Sample size for INC voters in this question is 465. Weighted Data
Question asked in the survey: (If gave vote preference) What was the main reason for voting for the party or candidate who you voted for?

Table 4:  Pro incumbency in Chhattisgarh stronger than 2008 according to survey
Should the ruling State govt.
get another chance?
2008
BJP govt.
2013
BJP govt.
Yes
51
55
No
26
31
Can’t say/No opinion
23
14
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: Do you think the current BJP government of Chhattisgarh should get another chance?        

Table 5: Satisfaction with BJP govt.’s performance greater than what it was five years ago

Satisfaction level with State
Government’s performance
2008
BJP govt.
2013
BJP govt.
Satisfied
72
81
Dissatisfied
14
15
Can’t say/No opinion
14
4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

Table 6: Satisfaction with Raman Singh’s work as chief minister also continues to be very high
Satisfaction level with
CM’s performance
2008

2013

Satisfied
75
82
Dissatisfied
12
14
Can’t say/No opinion
13
4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the figures for 2008 are from a post poll survey conducted by CSDS during the 2008 Assembly elections; Sample size in 2008 was 1249; Sample size in 2013 is 1629. Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

HOW HAS CHHATTISGARH VOTED?
Table 7: Regional pattern
Regions
What does the post poll survey indicate?
North Chhattisgarh (34 seats)
Close fight between INC and BJP
Central Chhattisgarh (43 seats)
BJP generally ahead of INC but close fight in urban parts
South Chhattisgarh (13 seats)
Close fight between BJP and INC; others also doing well
Note: Assessment based on post poll survey; North Chhattisgarh includes districts of Koria, Surajpur, Balrampur, Sarguja, Jashpur, Raigarh, Korba, Bilaspur, Mungeli, and parts of Janjgir-Champa; Central Chhattisgarh includes a part of Raigarh, parts of Janjgir-Champa, Mahasamund, Balodbazar, Raipur, Gariyaband, Balod, Durg, Bemetara, Kabirdham, Rajnandgaon and parts of Dhamtari; South Chhattisgarh includes Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, Bastar (Jagdalpur), Dantewada, Bijapur, Sukma and a part of Dhamtari
Table 8: Locality wise scenario

Locality
What does the post poll survey indicate?
Rural
BJP has overall lead
Urban
Neck and neck between INC and BJP in many parts
Note: Assessment based on weighted data from post poll survey

Table 9: Tribal vote: INC ahead but loses massive advantage it had over BJP among a section of STs

Tribes
INC
BJP
Others
Gond
34
23
43
Other STs
46
41
13
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size for Gond is 250; Sample size for other STs is 184; Weighted data. Questions used for cross tabulation: Whom did you vote for (in the assembly election)? What is your caste/community?

Table 10: Caste and community vote: Gains and Losses compared to 2008
Castes and Communities
What does the post poll survey indicate?
Upper Caste
BJP improves and way ahead
Upper OBC
BJP continues to be ahead of INC
Lower OBC
BJP improves and ahead of INC
SC
INC improves and leads BJP
Muslim
INC ahead comfortably
Christian
BJP and INC neck and neck
Note: Assessment based on weighted data from post poll survey
Table 11: BJP lead over INC highest among 36 to 45 age bracket; INC leads among first time voters

Age group
BJP
INC
Sample size (n)
18-22 years (first time voters)
39
41
145
23-25 years
44
42
189
26-35 years
39
38
429
36-45 years
45
35
338
46-55 years
39
38
240
56+ years
45
39
179
Note: All figures except in column 4 are in percent; Rest voted for others. Figures in column 4 indicate sample for each age-grp; Weighted data. Questions used for cross tabulation: Whom did you vote for (in the assembly election)? What is your age?

Table 12: Economic Class wise trend
Class
What does the post poll survey indicate?
Upper
BJP leads INC comfortably
Middle
BJP leads INC comfortably
Lower
BJP ahead but INC not far behind
Poor
Neck and neck between INC and BJP; others also doing well
Note: Assessment based on weighted data from post poll survey; Weighted data.
LEADERSHIP
Table 13: Raman Singh most preferred choice for CM, leads Jogi even among STs and SCs
Chief Minister preference
 (open ended question)
Overall
ST
SC
OBCs
Raman Singh
46
41
33
53
Ajit Jogi
21
24
29
18
Charandas Mahant
3
2
4
3
Others
12
10
18
11
Can’t say
18
23
16
15
Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for overall is 1629. Weighted data.
Question asked: Who would you like to see as the next Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh? (Record name and consult codebook)

Table 14: INC could have gained by announcing Ajit Jogi as CM candidate: One fourth of BJP voters say they would have voted differently had Jogi been INC’s CM nominee

Would you have voted for the same party you voted for if Ajit Jogi had been CM candidate of INC?
INC
voters
BJP
voters
Yes, voted for the same party
71
59
No, voted for another party
6
25
Can’t say
23
16
Note: All figures are in percent; Sample size for INC voters in this question is 579; Sample size for BJP voters in this question is 641. Weighted data.
Question asked: (If gave vote preference) Suppose Ajit Jogi had been the chief ministerial candidate of the INC party in the Chhattisgarh election, then in such a situation would you have voted for the same party you voted for or you would have voted for some other party?

Table 15: Price rise was most important election issue, Naxalism comes last; price rise seems to be hurting women the most

Most important election issue
Overall
Among Women
Price rise
20
25
Development
13
10
Food security
12
14
Employment
12
10
Corruption
11
9
Water and electricity
6
7
Education and health
5
5
Farmers’ issues
4
3
Condition of roads
3
2
Naxalism
2
1
Other issues
5
5
Can’t say
7
9
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off, hence may not add up to 100; Sample size for overall is 1629; Sample size for women is 745; Weighted data.
Question asked: While casting your vote in the recent Chhattisgarh Assembly election, which among the following was the important issue for you –issue of electricity and water, issue of corruption, issue of health and education, issue of rising prices, issue of development, the naxal problem, issue of employment, issue of cheap food grain, issue of roads or issue of agriculture and farmers?

Table 16: Chhattisgarh BJP govt’s performance rated far better than UPA govt’s performance
Governments’ performance
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
No opinion
INC-led UPA govt.
61
21
18
Chhattisgarh’s BJP govt.
81
15
4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; question was asked separately for each govt; Sample size for each question is 1629. Weighted data.
Questions asked in the survey: What is your assessment of the work done by the BJP government in Chhattisgarh in the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with it? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the INC-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four and half years? (Probe further whether ‘fully’ or ‘somewhat’ satisfied or dissatisfied).
Table 17: Raman Singh’s performance as CM rated much better than Manmohan Singh’s as PM
Leaders’ performance
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
No opinion
Manmohan Singh as PM
64
22
14
Raman Singh as CM
82
14
4
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; question was asked separately for each leader; Sample size for each question is 1629. Weighted data.
Questions asked in the survey: How would you assess the performance of Raman Singh as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh
over the last five years? Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with his performance? (Probe further  whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

Table 18: Those who voted looking at the Central govt’s performance are mainly INC voters and not BJP voters

Voted in the election looking at…
Overall
INC voters
BJP voters
State BJP govt.’s performance
41
16
74
UPA govt.’s performance
13
30
2
Both
15
21
15
Neither
15
12
3
No opinion
16
21
6
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size for overall is 1629. Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: In the recent Chhattisgarh Assembly election, did you vote looking at the work done by the State BJP government or did you vote looking at the work done by the UPA Central government?

Table 19:  Hindutva organisations, Christian missionaries and Naxalites seem to be most active in South Chhattisgarh

Perception of activity of organisations among the survey respondents…
North Chhattisgarh
Central Chhattisgarh
South Chhattisgarh
RSS is very active or somewhat active
in my area
28
21
27
Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram is very active
or somewhat active in my area
18
14
42
VHP is very active or somewhat
active in my area
21
12
24
Naxalites are very active or somewhat
active in my area
6
5
28
Christian Missionaries are very active or
somewhat active in my area
10
10
39
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest of the respondents either said not at all active or did not answer. Sample size for North Chhattisgarh is 627, Sample size for Central Chhattisgarh is 719; Sample size for South Chhattisgarh is 282; Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: Now I will read out the names of a few organisations/people. Please tell me how active are they in your locality – very active, somewhat active or not active at all? a. RSS b. Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram c. VHP d. Naxalites/Maoists e. Christian missionaries
 
Table 20: High negative perception of Naxalites even among tribal respondents
Perception of work done by…
Doing
good work
Doing
bad work
Can’t
say
RSS (overall responses)
27
3
70
Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram
(responses among tribals)
30
1
69
VHP (overall responses)
18
6
76
Naxalites
(responses among tribals)
1
30
69
Christian Missionaries
(responses among tribals)
16
7
77
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size for overall responses is 1629 and for tribal responses is 523. Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: Now I will read out the names of a few organisations/people. Please tell me do they do good work or bad work in your opinion? a. RSS  b. Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram c. VHP  d. Naxalites/Maoists e. Christian missionaries

LEADERSHIP AND LOK SABHA 2014

Table 21: PM choice - Modi ahead of Rahul+Sonia+Manmohan in Chhattisgarh, but Rahul leads Modi among Dalits

Prime Minister Preference
for 2014 (open ended question)
Overall
SCs
STs
OBCs
Narendra Modi
30
13
23
37
Rahul Gandhi
16
21
11
18
Sonia Gandhi
6
7
8
4
Manmohan Singh
6
6
4
6
Raman Singh
4
1
5
4
L K Advani
2
4
4
1
Mayawati
2
8
0
1
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; the rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Sample size for overall is 1629; Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: (After the next Lok Sabha election who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country? (Do not offer any name to the respondent. Record his/her answer and consult codebook later for coding)

Table 22: PM choice - Modi maintains big lead over Rahul in straight comparison as well

Prime Minister preference for 2014
Straight choice between Rahul and Modi

Rahul Gandhi
25
Narendra Modi
39
Both
4
Neither
9
Can’t say
23
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1629; Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: If you had to choose the next Prime Minister of India between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, then who would you like to see as Prime Minister? 

Table 23: Modi seen as a better orator than Rahul

Who has a better style of giving speeches Rahul or Modi?
Overall
Rahul Gandhi
21
Narendra Modi
36
Both
12
Neither
5
Can’t say
26
Note: All figures are in percent and rounded off; Sample size is 1629; Weighted data.
Question asked in the survey: Between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, whose style of giving speeches do you like more?

CHHATTISGARH ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2013: POST POLL SURVEY BY LOKNITI, CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF DEVELOPING SOCIETIES
 
The findings presented here are based on a Post Poll survey conducted by the Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, in Chhattisgarh for CNN-IBN and The Week. The survey was conducted among 1629  respondents in two phases -  between 13th and 19th of November 2013 soon after the first phase of voting in Chhattisgarh and then between 20th and 26th November 2013 after the second phase of voting in Chhattisgarh. The fieldwork for the survey took place in 97 locations spread across 25 Assembly constituencies (Table I). The 25 assembly constituencies were the same as those where a Pre Poll survey was conducted by CSDS in October 2013. The respondents too were from the same pool of respondents that had been selected for the Pre Poll survey. The constituencies were selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size Method. Four polling stations within each of the 25 sampled constituencies were selected using the Systematic Random Sampling (SRS) technique. The respondents were also selected using the SRS method from the most updated electoral rolls of the 100 selected polling stations. Keeping in mind, the probability of non completion of interviews amongst all the selected respondents we adopted the technique of over sampling of respondents. A total of 2000 randomly selected electors were targeted for interviews in the field during the Post Poll Survey, of which 1629 interviews were successfully completed in the stipulated time. The survey could not be conducted in 3 polling stations as planned. The number of responses obtained in one of the sampled assembly seats –Bijapur - were quite low.

Table I: Methodology of Post Poll Survey
Survey method

Time period when survey was conducted
Nov 13 to Nov 19
Nov 20 to Nov 26
Number of Assembly Constituencies surveyed
25
Number of Polling Stations surveyed
97
Number of respondents targeted
2000
Total respondents achieved (Sample size)
1629
Note: The survey could not be conducted in three polling stations as planned

The social profile of the respondents interviewed largely matched the demographic profile of the State. Women comprise 46 per cent of the sample. 15 percent of the sample consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 27 per cent is made up of Scheduled Tribes. These numbers are by and large similar to actual Census figures and reflect the representative nature of the sample, although there is an underrepresentation of women and STs and an overrepresentation of SCs which was taken into account while doing the analysis (see Table II).

Table 2: Sample profile
Social
Background
Census
2011/2001
Post Poll
Survey 2013
Urban
23.2
17.7
Women
49.7
45.7
SC
12.8
14.7
ST
30.6
26.9
Muslim
2.0
2.8
Christian
1.9
2.3
Note: All figures are in percent; figures for Muslims and Christians from Census 2001.

The interviews were conducted by specially trained field investigators. The respondents were interviewed in the face-to-face interview situation using a structured interview schedule in Hindi. Respondents were mostly interviewed at their home, preferably alone. All voting questions were asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box.

The estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’ stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols of all the major political parties in the State and the names of the candidates. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of over-estimation of votes for big parties and underestimation for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller parties and independents as base. A comparison of the proportion of important social categories in the total survey sample of a State with their actual proportion in the population of that State was also made while deciding the estimate of vote shares.

The fieldwork of the survey in Chhattisgarh was coordinated by Anupama Saxena and Shamshad Ansari (Guru Ghasidas Vishwavidyalaya, Bilaspur). The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at Lokniti-CSDS, Delhi which included Anuradha Singh, Ashish Ranjan, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, Himanshu Bhattacharya, Jyoti Mishra, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan Malhotra, Nitin Mehta, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri gave their inputs and suggestions. Sanjay Kumar of the CSDS directed the survey.

About Hemant Verma

Adds a short author bio after every single post on your blog. Also, It's mainly a matter of keeping lists of possible information, and then figuring out what is relevant to a particular editor's needs.

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